Christmas 2015: Advent calendar of research
In the run up to Christmas I have been posting each day that is (loosely) related to Research and Knowledge Exchange, and is also Christmas related. I thought it worthwhile just summarsing them here so that you can take a look at them from from one easily accessible place. Deck the halls with research stories […]
Wisdom of the Crowds at the Graduate School Christmas Party
In 1906 Francis Galton was at a country fair and there was a guess the ox competition. He took all 787 guesses and took the average. This was 1,197 pounds. The actual weight? 1.198 pounds! In effect the wisdom of the crowds gave a perfect answer. This was the start of The Wisdom of the […]
2015 General Election Prediction: Wisdom of the Crowds
Introduction The 2015 UK General Election looks like being one of the closest, and hardest to predict, for many years. With 650 seats being contested, one party needs to win more than half the seats (326) to be able to form a government. Most, if not all, polls are predicting a hung parliament, with the […]
Time to switch to Java for a football prediction project
I have decided that it was time to switch to Java for a football prediction project that I have been planning for some time. I want to do the project justice so I thought I would start from the most basic decision. What programming language should I use? The Problem with C++ For the past […]
Football fixture forecasting. Are you any good?
Football fixture forecasting is something I have expressed an interest in recently. Actually, this blog contains a forecasting category, that you might be interested in. In my last post, I mentioned a crowdfunding project that I am trying to get off the ground. This prroject aims to investigate football fixture forecasting, utilising methodologies such as Artificial […]
Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football
I occasionally comment on a scientific paper that is of interest to me. This time, it was: Lars Magnus Hvattuma and Halvard Arntzenb (20010) Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football, International Journal of Forecasting, 26(3), 460-470 (doi). This paper falls into the broader categories of Football, Forecasting and Sport, which I have […]
Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English Football
I sometimes comment on a scientific paper that has caught my eye. This time, it was (comments on other papers are also available): David Forrest, John Goddard and Robert Simmons (2005) Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football, International Journal of Forecasting, 21(3), 551-564 (doi). This paper falls into the broader categories of Football, […]
A compound framework for sports results prediction: A football case study
The latest paper that caught my attention, that I thought I would comment on is (other publications I have commented are can be seen here). Byungho Min, Jinhyuck Kim, Chongyoun Choe, Hyeonsang Eom and R.I. (Bob) McKay (2008) A compound framework for sports results prediction: A football case study, Knowledge Based Systems, 21(7), 551-562 (doi). […]
Sports Forecasting: A Comparison of the Forecast Accuracy of Prediction Markets, Betting Odds and Tipsters
In some of my posts I comment on a scientific paper that has caught my eye. There is no particular reason for the papers that I choose, they are just of interest to me. In this post, the paper that caught my eye was (comments on other papers can be seen here). Martin Spann and […]
Can Forecasters Forecast Successfully?: Evidence from UK Betting Markets
I am occasionally blog on a paper that is of interest. Well, of interest to me. The latest paper to catch my eye is (other papers I have commented on can be seen here). Leighton Vaughan Williams (2000) Can Forecasters Forecast Successfully?: Evidence from UK Betting Markets, Journal of Forecasting, 19(6), 505-513 (doi). The reason […]